Citigroup Lowers Macau’s September GGR Prediction to $2.12B

Macau’s vibrant gaming landscape has recently been spotlighted by Citigroup’s revised projections for the region’s Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) in September 2024. Initially looking towards a brighter financial outlook, the investment bank tempered its expectations, forecasting a GGR of MOP17.0 billion, or $2.12 billion, down from the prior estimate of MOP17.75 billion ($2.21 billion). This significant reduction has been attributed to a noticeable dip in the VIP hold rates over the past two weeks.

Despite reaching approximately MOP12.15 billion ($1.51 billion) for the first 22 days of September, Citigroup’s updated forecast highlights an 11 to 13 percent drop in VIP gaming volumes month-on-month. The mass market echoes this trend, witnessing a similar decline between 11 and 14 percent. The average daily run-rate also experienced a slight downturn, falling 3 percent to MOP521 million ($64.9 million) from MOP536 million ($66.8 million) the previous week.

Voicing concern over these figures, experts suggest that some gamers might be deferring their visits to benefit from the National Day Golden Week festivities kicking off in early October. This postponement could lead to a softer performance for the remainder of the month. However, Citigroup maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook; they predict an upswing in daily run-rates, projecting MOP606 million ($75.5 million) over the rest of the month.

The anticipated figure, while reflecting a 14 percent increase from last year, represents merely 77 percent of the levels captured in September 2019—an indicator of the gradual recovery pace of Macau’s gaming sector.

In a region renowned for its bustling casinos and opulent gaming corridors, the fluctuation in GGR underscores the dynamic challenges faced by the industry. As the focus shifts to the promising Golden Week, stakeholders, including seasoned journalist Viviana Chan, remain vigilant, observing how these factors will shape Macau’s economic narrative in the weeks to come. Emphasis now lies on whether the anticipated tourist influx and adjustments in VIP gaming strategies will successfully bolster the figures, crucial for sustaining momentum in the region’s economic resurgence.